Justin Gillis?s latest ?By Degrees? report is focused on the recent flurry of findings and discussion related to one of the most important and enduring questions in climate science: How much warming will result from a given buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases?
Specifically, how much will temperatures rise if the concentration of the main greenhouse gas of concern, carbon dioxide, doubles from the level of 280 parts per million that prevailed as the industrial revolution got into gear in the 19th century and was not exceeded for hundreds of thousands of years prior to that.
Please give the article a read, review related Dot Earth posts and weigh in ? constructively.
Here?s an excerpt and link:
What?s new is that several recent papers have offered best estimates for climate sensitivity that are below four degrees Fahrenheit, rather than the previous best estimate of just above five degrees, and they have also suggested that the highest estimates are pretty implausible.
Notice that these recent calculations fall well within the long-accepted range ? just on the lower end of it. But the papers have caused considerable excitement among climate-change contrarians.
It is not that they actually agree with the new numbers, mind you. They have long pushed implausibly low estimates of climate sensitivity, below two degrees Fahrenheit in some cases. But they appear to be calculating that any paper with a lowball number is a step in their direction.
James Annan, a mainstream climate scientist?working at a Japanese institute, offers a best estimate of four and a half degrees Fahrenheit. When he wrote recently that he thought some of the highest temperature projections could be rejected, skeptics could not contain their enthusiasm.
?That is what we call a landmark change of course ? by one of climatology?s most renowned warmist scientists,??declared?a blogger named Pierre L. Gosselin. ?If even Annan can see it, then the writing is truly emblazoned on the wall.?
But does this sort of claim ? that we can all breathe a sigh of relief about climate change ? really hold up?
Read the rest to find out.
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